Some have already begun to suggest that Elizabeth May should move to New Westminster-Coquitlam and start campaigning for the anticipated by-election there, now that NDP MP Dawn Black is stepping down to run provincially. This is a somewhat tempting idea because of the double-dividend of being able to campaign for British Columbia’s referendum on improving their voting system. However, there are at least two major reasons for Elizabeth to stay put for now.

The first is that we don’t yet know who is going to run for the leadership of the Ontario PC party. One possibility is John Baird (even though he’s having fun playing coy), which would open up a federal seat in the Ottawa area. Both Elizabeth and the Green party itself have strong roots in Ottawa, so that could be a good option.

The second reason is a long shot, but an exciting one for federal Greens. If Peter MacKay became the next secretary general of NATO (a possibility slightly more likely now that U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden is reportedly lobbying on his behalf), that would make a vacated Central Nova more winnable than ever for Elizabeth May. She could convincingly argue that she’s MacKay’s natural successor having already paid her dues there, and that she’s always remained loyal to the riding even when the going got tough.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens. In the mean time, Elizabeth should wait and see.