Monthly Archives: July 2007

Did Someone Order A Green Surprise?

conservative party, green party, liberal party, ndp, social justice, toronto

In reporting the looming Toronto Centre by-election (Bill Graham’s resignation became effective one week ago today), there appears to be a temptation to portray this as a two-way race between the Liberal and the Conservative. (For example, this story published yesterday by the Ottawa Citizen makes no mention of either myself or the NDP candidate.)

That analysis is understandable, since those are the two largest parties at the national level. However, in the context of Toronto Centre, it’s faulty. Recent election results, as well as the current political climate, tell a different story.

The first-time Conservative candidate, Mark Warner, is trying to convince people that he has a shot at beating Liberal Bob Rae because, “if you go on the Elections Canada website and go back to the 1880s, you will see that this riding historically goes with the federal government.” It’s hard to know if he meant to say ‘1980s’ or was misquoted. Either way, things have changed since then. Actually, two very specific things: the demographic/psychographic make-up of Toronto Centre, and the Conservative Party of Canada.

While Mark’s right that our riding used to support Red-Tories, voters in Toronto Centre have shown little appetite for the Alliance-Conservative party of Stephen Harper. Mark’s assured me that he’s a progressive, and I have no reason to disbelieve him, but he unfortunately belongs to a party that has gutted women’s programs, removed “women’s equality” from the federal government’s mandate, eliminated successful environmental programs, refused to declare that water is a human right, blocked the international UN declaration of the rights of Indigenous peoples, more closely aligned our foreign policy with the United States (including, when in opposition, pressuring the government to join the war in Iraq and criticizing them for trying secure justice for Maher Arar), dismissed the Geneva conventions, attempted to eliminate equal marriage, turned its back on Kyoto, turned its back on Kelowna, turned its back on Atlantic Canada…

Sorry, got off on a bit of a rant there. Point is, if Mark wants to make this Alliance-Conservative party progressive, he’s got his work cut-out for him. Especially considering that not even cabinet ministers in Harper’s government are allowed to speak their minds, let-alone back-bench MPs.

In reality, the Conservative candidate in the last election came a distant third, earning only 18% of the vote. In the vote before that, they got only 14%. The NDP, while still a distant second, were comfortably ahead of the Conservatives with 24% in each of the last two federal elections. So if you’re only going to talk about two parties in Toronto Centre, the NDP should be one of them.

And yet, it would be just as unlikely for the NDP to win this riding. For one, they’ve never done it—not once. Secondly, videos posted to the candidate’s website show his supporters (including one previous NDP candidate and two current elected NDP MPPs) mocking “Rosedale Bobby.” They therefore seem to have no interest in reaching out to the people of Rosedale, to put it mildly. That’s a big chunk of the riding to just cast off, and probably means that the best they can hope for is to remain maxed-out at 24% just as they have in the last two elections, despite having a very good candidate this time around.

The Green Party, on the other hand, is the only party up in the polls since the last federal election. (One poll even had us tied with the NDP nationally.) In Toronto Centre, our result in the last election (when I was also the candidate) was an increase of 48%, far more than that of any other party. Being a fiscally responsible and socially progressive party, we also appeal to a very diverse range of people. We appeal to Bill-Graham-Liberals who aren’t comfortable with Bob Rae, Progressive Conservatives who have lost their party entirely, and NDPers who feel, like so many I’ve talked to, that their party has lost its way, at least for the time being.

Am I predicting a Green win in Toronto Centre? Probably not this time, no. But it’s worth noting that the political landscape in Canada is shifting very quickly. The “Conservative vs. Liberal” dichotomy isn’t what it once was, and the formerly-dismissible Greens are now a serious factor. If there’s one thing we learned in the London North Centre by-election, it’s that Greens should not be underestimated.

MMP, Inaccuracy

democracy and good government, ontario referendum on mmp,

Somewhere, there must be opponents of MMP who are able to argue their case without resorting to misleading statements and inaccuracies. The Sudbury Star’s Claire Hoy does not appear to be one of them. In yesterday’s paper he writes a frustratingly irresponsible attack against MMP that contains numerous fallacies which beg to be corrected.

First, he claims that MMP would result in “considerably more politicians.” What he doesn’t say is that under MMP Ontario would still have fewer representatives than we did before the Harris years, and still less political representation per person than any other province or territory in Canada. Either way, most Ontarians will recognize stronger representation as a positive thing.

Second, he makes the equally inaccurate but often repeated claim that the list representatives under the new system would not be elected, but would rather be chosen in secret. In fact, it is our current system which allows parties to choose candidates in back-rooms without any transparency; the new system requires them to open up the process so that voters can make informed decisions. Parties will nominate their list candidates as they nominate candidates under our current system, but they’ll also be required to make public the process by which their list is chosen, making it all but impossible for “party hacks” to control the list in secret.

Third, Hoy inaccurately claims that MMP leads to minority governments. In reality, countries that use MMP (like Germany and New Zealand) experience coalition-majority governments that have proven to not only be stable (Germany has had exactly the same number of elections since adopting MMP as Ontario has had in the same time period), but also to do an extremely effective job of reflecting the will of the electorate.

Finally, Hoy feels the need to mock the Citizens’ Assembly itself, which is most objectionable. The Citizens’ Assembly–103 every-day Ontarians chosen at random from each riding–worked for eight months on our behalf learning, consulting, and deliberating about all of the world’s many electoral systems, including our current system and France’s system that Hoy favours. This represents an unprecedented exercise in democratic engagement for our province and should be applauded. The citizens who made up the assembly know more about the advantages and faults of MMP than any other group of people in Ontario, and yet they voted over 90% in favour of recommending MMP as being the best system for Ontario.

Of course, Mr. Hoy is free to disagree with them. However, he should do it using facts, and with a respect for the overwhelmingly democratic process that was used to arrive at the conclusion that Ontario should vote for MMP.

There Is Hope

democracy and good government

I find American politics to be profoundly discouraging. While Stephen Harper has made it clear that he will not hesitate to stoop to the lowest of political tactics to get his way (as John Ibbitson has written, “there is nothing, nothing Mr. Harper won’t do to win”), he has at least been kept in check to a certain degree by a Parliamentary system that, while not perfect, could be much worse, and by a media that has refused to stop asking questions even when Harper stopped taking them.

There are now glimmers of hope appearing for the majority of Americans who would take back their democracy. If you read any other political blogs, you’ve probably already seen Keith Olbermann’s special comment as broadcast Tuesday night on MSNBC. If not, it’s embedded below and is required viewing. Thanks to Mr. Olbermann for reminding us that dissent can be patriotic, and that opposition to American government policy is not in itself anti-American.